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- เป็นแหล่งรวบรวมข้อมูล บทความวิชาการ งานเขียนต่างๆ ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับ การฉายภาพอนาคตศาสตร์ของการพัฒนาประชาคมอาเซียน และเป็นแหล่งแสวงหาองค์ความรู้ด้านต่างๆ เพื่อเตรียมความพร้อม ของผู้ประกอบการ ประชาชน พลเมือง องค์กรปกครองส่วนท้องถิ่น ในการรับมือกับการเปลี่ยนแปลงจากการพัฒนาความร่วมมือระหว่างประเทศ และยังเป็นการให้ข้อมูลกระตุ้น เตือน หน่วยงาน องค์กรที่เกี่ยวข้อง ให้ตระหนักถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงจากการพัฒนาประชาคมอาเซียนทั้ง 3 เสาหลัก
แสดงบทความที่มีป้ายกำกับ New of Myanmar แสดงบทความทั้งหมด
แสดงบทความที่มีป้ายกำกับ New of Myanmar แสดงบทความทั้งหมด

วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 20 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2556

New Myanmar Parts 10 : Asia’s Last Economic Frontier Needs Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Asia’s Last Economic Frontier Needs 

Hundreds of Billions of Dollars


The winners of next week’s bidding process to build Burma’s wireless telecommunications network will need very deep pockets, according to the latest Monopoly board-game figures for developing the country.
“$50 billion is needed in telecommunications infrastructure if Myanmar [Burma] is to make full use of digital technology to leapfrog stages of development,” say economists Martin N. Baily and Richard Dobbs in a critique of the level and focus of investment in the country.
Perhaps that kind of outlay is not what the dozen or so international telecommunications companies bidding for two network licenses have in mind, but it’s what Baily and Dobbs believe will be necessary to help push Burma firmly into the 21st century by discarding some 20th-century models.
“For example, by using mobile banking or e-commerce to avoid the cost of building physical banks and shops and to extend health and education services to even the remotest villages,” Baily and Dobbs outlined in a report for Project Syndicate, a website which publishes “original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers.”
Baily is a former chairman of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers and an economic policy development commentator at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Dobbs is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.
US $50 billion is only a small portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars the authors reckon is needed to truly make Burma the last economic frontier of growth which international media have been talking up for the past year.
Baily and Dobbs calculate that around $300 billion is needed just to raise Burma’s housing, electricity, transport and energy infrastructure to 21st-century standards. Half of this huge sum would need to be spent in the largest cities and towns, which they tip to expand considerably if the country moves away from its present agrarian base.
“Today, only an estimated 13 percent of Myanmar’s population lives in large cities, but that could rise to 25 percent by 2030—an addition of 10 million people,” say Baily and Dobbs.

Their figures suggest an annual investment of at least $20 billion a year through to 2030. But in Burma’s last financial year, a total of $1.4 billion was actually invested, according to government figures.
This modest investment to date, the reality behind all the gung-ho headlines of boom, boom, boom, was underlined as a problem for Burma just recently by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
“Certainly it is going to be an uphill task to attract the sort of investment to meet these [Baily and Dobbs] projections. Particularly so since the vast funds that, up until recently, have been sloshing around the world looking for yield are fast drying up,” long-time Burma economy watcher Sean Turnell told The Irrawaddy on June 17.
Much of the inward investment in property construction is going into hotels to cater for the country’s burgeoning tourism. Numerous foreign companies have visited Rangoon and Naypyidaw and made vague offers to build new electricity-generating infrastructure, but very little actual power plant construction is under way or confirmed as copper-bottomed projects.
Aside from the mobile telephone network franchises scramble, with winners scheduled to be announced June 27, one of the biggest looming investments is expected to be in the energy sector, with 30 offshore blocks up for development.

The closing date for offshore blocks bids was June 14 and the Ministry of Energy has said it will announce winners by the end of this month.
Nineteen of the blocks are in deep seas of the Bay of Bengal and only the major international oil companies have the necessary technology, skills and deep pockets to carry out expensive undersea exploratory drilling.
No firms have announced their bids but speculation in the foreign oil industry press has named Chevron, BP, Shell, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Petronas of Malaysia, PTTEP of Thailand and Norway’s Statoil as possible contenders.
The short-listed bidders for phone network licenses already announced by the government include China Mobile Limited; Vodafone Group; Singapore Telecommunications; Bharti Airtel of India; KDDI Corporation of Japan; Sumitomo Corporation, also of Japan; Telenor of Norway; and Vietnam’s Viettel Group.
Turnell, an economics professor at Macquarie University in Australia and co-editor of the Burma Economic Watch, said a lack of investment in basic infrastructure in Burma remained a “very significant problem”. But he cited the example of the British-Dutch conglomerate Unilever’s decision to develop a second factory in the country as “something quite positive”.
“The Unilever story [is] still only one example of what needs to take place, but a step in the desired direction at least. This sort of investment employs people, is of the sort that must grapple with local laws, institutions and conditions broadly, and is the sort that puts down roots,” Turnell told The Irrawaddy.
Unilever, a processed packaged foods-to-personal hygiene and household cleaning products giant, is due to open its first factory in Rangoon by the end of June, providing jobs for 150 people, and said earlier this month it would establish a second plant by the end of this year.
“Myanmar faces monumental development challenges that embrace virtually every aspect of the economy,” said Baily and Dobbs. “But that implies the broadest possible range of opportunities for companies and investors as well. They should proceed with caution, but with the expectation of tapping into a potentially lucrative new market.”

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วันศุกร์ที่ 7 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2556

5 ways Myanmar is preparing for the future!

5 ways Myanmar is preparing for the future!

It takes decades to ramp up the infrastructure of a country. The initial years are the most difficult and fraught with risk. The process of planning and putting the approvals framework into place can take years to complete.
In this context, what the Government of Myanmar has achieved in a very short time is as remarkable as it is unique. When it started, several factors that some consider essential for a successful ramp up of a country’s infrastructure were severely underdeveloped. Despite this, the country has taken bold steps in multiple sectors simultaneously. The single biggest factor driving this change is the strong and clear intent of the government to do what is needed to improve infrastructure so that it becomes an enabler of economic growth.
In this regard, we believe the following five steps that the government is in the process of implementing would further help achieve its targets:
  • Building institutional capacity within the government to prioritize and procure the needed infrastructure which provides “value for money” – experience gained by the energy sector and ongoing know-how being developed by the telecom and transport sectors in procurement methods would serve as templates to procurement teams in other infrastructure sectors;
  • Actively encouraging the development of partnerships between foreign and local participants to bring together international know-how and local context – the FIL makes joint ventures the preferred mode for several sectors, thereby ensuring that infrastructure providers have local know-how and context. This helps in the development of local enterprises and transfer of technology and managerial capabilities;
  • Developing the banking system and financial markets to allow free flow of capital to support infrastructure investment – the Central Bank of Myanmar Law, when passed, should address some of the outstanding issues in the sector;
  • Fostering public goodwill towards infrastructure projects by demonstrating their economic benefits and potential for creating jobs – the requirement for all large projects in the future to be environmentally sound and to have a positive socio-economic impact will help achieve sustainable and inclusive development.
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วันอังคารที่ 4 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2556

New Myanmar Parts 8 : World Economic Form 2013 ; Myanmar Hosting VIPs to Expose Country’s Growth Challenge !

New Myanmar Parts 8 : 
World Economic Form 2013; Myanmar Hosting VIPs to Expose Country’s Growth Challenge !
Myanmar’s efforts to catch up with the world around it after half a century of military rule is being put to the test this week as a summit of government and business leaders fills hotels and stretches phone networks.
Myanmar hosts the three-day World Economic Forum on East Asia starting tomorrow, with heads of state and executives from companies including General Electric Co. (GE)Coca-Cola Co. (KO) and WPP Plc (WPP) attending. Delegates may struggle to communicate over phone networks that have yet to be expanded and will have difficulty finding businesses that accept credit cards. Many hotels are still cash-only, with some only recently accepting Visa and MasterCard payments, including the Parkroyal Yangon
video platformvideo managementvideo solutionsvideo player

President Thein Sein has allowed more political freedom and loosened economic controls since coming to power two years ago, prompting nations including the U.S. to ease sanctions and attracting companies such as Ford Motor Co. (F),MasterCard Inc. (MA) and Unilever NV. (UNA) The country needs to spend $320 billion by 2030 to achieve economic growth of 8 percent a year, according to a report by McKinsey Global Institute released last week.
“There is a gold rush” into Myanmar, said Maung Zarni, a visiting fellow at the Department of International Development at the London School of Economics. “This is one of the last few remaining places that has not has been penetrated, but the infrastructure is just not there.”
Thein Sein signed a foreign investment bill in November to woo overseas companies into spending more. Companies scouting opportunities or striking development agreements include Visa Inc. (V), the biggest payments network, Unilever, the second-biggest consumer-goods company, and closely held hotel chain Best Western International Inc.

Growth Potential

Modernization plans include upgrading Myanmar’s financial system, building roads and airports, as well as giving the country’s 64 million people greater access to mobile phones.
The economy may grow 6.75 percent this fiscal year, led by natural gas sales and investment, the International Monetary Fund said in a report last month.
Myanmar’s gross domestic product could more than quadruple to $200 billion with an 8 percent annual growth rate, according to McKinsey, almost double the pace from 1990 to 2010. That may help lure $170 billion in capital inflows, with foreign direct investment accounting for $100 billion, more than twice as much as it attracted in the previous two decades, it said.
Of the $320 billion McKinsey estimates is needed to spur the economy, about 60 percent will be for residential and commercial real estate. The agriculture-dependent economy also needs power plants, roads and railways, it said.

Airport Bids

Myanmar’s Department of Civil Aviation has invited bids to build and operate international airports in Yangon and Mandalay. Four companies or groups were selected last week to make final bids for the new Yangon airport, which will be about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast of the city, according to theauthority’s website. Seven groups have also qualified for the next round of bidding for the Mandalay International Airport expansion project.
Hotel chains are also planning to expand in the nation. Best Western will open its first Myanmar property in 2013 to take advantage of a shortage of rooms. The Phoenix-based group is considering locations including Yangon and Mandalay, the nation’s two largest cities, Glenn de Souza, Bangkok-based vice president of international operations for Asia and the Middle East, said in January.

Mobile Reach

Mobile phones have been out of reach for most Myanmar consumers since limited services were first introduced in 2001. The cost of activating a phone using the global system for mobile communications standard, or GSM, was initially about 4.5 million kyat ($4,790).
The government has invited bids for two telecom licenses, for which it shortlisted 12 groups in April. The country plans to boost telecommunications coverage to as much as 80 percent by 2016 and to make services affordable, the government said in January. There were 5.44 million mobile-phone subscribers as of December, or 9 percent of the population.
Final winners of the licenses will be announced June 27, according to the Ministry of Communications and Information TechnologySingapore Telecommunications Ltd. (ST), which is bidding together with KBZ Group and Myanmar Telephone Co., said yesterday it submitted its final bid for a license.
“Our in-country partners, KBZ and MTel, have insights and extensive presence in various sectors of the Myanmar economy,” Mark Chong, head of SingTel’s international consumer division, said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

4G Network

A group led by Kingston, Jamaica-based Digicel Group Ltd., billionaire George Soros and Myanmar property developer YSH Finance Ltd. pledged to invest $9 billion in Myanmar’s mobile-phone network if it’s granted a license. The group will roll out a fourth-generation mobile network across the country by Dec. 1, and its wireless service will reach 96 percent of Myanmar’s population by 2016, it said yesterday.
The Myanmar government said in April it would lower the price of SIM cards to 1,500 kyat from 200,000 kyat and sell about 350,000 of them each month.
The telecom and financial services industries may each grow at a compound annual rate of 23 percent from 2010 to 2030, McKinsey said. That compares with 17 percent for tourism, 10 percent for manufacturing and 8 percent for infrastructure.
Visa and MasterCard are seeking to expand their presence in Myanmar, where most transactions are done in cash. MasterCard became the first payments network to issue a license to a local bank last September when it signed an accord with Co-Operative Bank Ltd.
Only a handful of hotels in Yangon, the commercial capital, accept credit cards. Adding to the difficulty of paying for goods and services in Myanmar, business owners typically won’t accept worn U.S. dollar bills, the preferred currency.
“Even as tourists if you want to buy local products, a lot of businesses don’t have credit card facilities,” Zarni said. “If you pull out your wallet and give them cash they will say ‘I’m sorry I can’t take your cash because it’s creased.’”
To contact the reporters on this story: Kyunghee Park in Singapore at kpark3@bloomberg.net; Kyaw Thu in Bangkok at kthu1@bloomberg.net
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วันเสาร์ที่ 1 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2556

New Myanmar Parts 6 : A ‘Crony’ with a Conscience !

New Myanmar Parts 6 : A ‘Crony’ with a Conscience !


Zaw Zaw, the chairman of the Myanmar Football Federation and founder of Max Myanmar Group, may be the most socially conscious of those among Burma’s business elite who are regarded as cronies.
In a recent interview with The Irrawaddy, Zaw Zaw insists he has always played by the rules and has never exploited anyone for his own gain. He also laments that his business ambitions have been hampered by the imposition of international sanctions against him.
Zaw Zaw went on to say that fighting against one another, whether ideologically or physically, was a weakness of Burma’s people. As for younger generations at this time of great change, he said more job opportunities should be created and Burma’s education system must be improved for the betterment of the nation’s future.
QuestionYou used to say that even if you are a so-called ‘crony,’ you want to be a good one. Why is that?
Answer: I am Burmese and a native of this country. I have never betrayed my country. I love it and want it to be honored. I do business and pay taxes. At the same time, I take care of my staff as I would my children and carry out CSR [corporate social responsibility] for them. Nowadays, I have become a political victim and been called strange names. I don’t have any comment on that. What I do is just important. My belief is that I will do my best for my country no matter how I have been criticized. I will continue doing my business honestly. I will also help young people and nurture them to be brilliant.
QWhat is the value of your assets right now?
A: A valuation on my assets should be carried out first in order to answer this exactly. There are international valuation companies that assess us. What I mean is that I bought a house for 100 million kyat [US $125,000] before, but it may be worth a billion kyat now. So I can tell you exactly only after the valuation.
QPrior to 1990, you worked in Japan. You were an ordinary worker then. How did you manage in the last 20 years to build this life for yourself from those origins?
A: Actually, I went to Japan in 1990. In 1988, I was studying my final year at Rangoon University, majoring in mathematics. I am very careful with my time. I strove full time with the intelligence and prudence I gained, thanks to my teachers and parents, from primary school to graduation. I have always tried to achieve good results. Whatever I do, I want to make it happen and finish it. I also want to make it successful.
Another thing is that I have many friends and I don’t find it difficult to tolerate others. Besides that, I am honest, have never cheated anyone in my life even for a penny, and never committed any crime either. These are parts of my life profile. To be frank, I am where I am now because I have been striving full time and [this is the] cause and effect of what I’ve done.
Even though a 20-year period is not that long, in reality it is about a quarter or one-third of a lifetime. In some countries, there are many people who have become billionaires within five to 10 years. I am rich to a certain extent in Burma, but I am not competing with anyone in my country. It is very shameful if we compare with other counties. Our wealth is in fact quite small.
I want to compete with people in other countries in our education, social, health and economic sectors. Because these are my desired benchmarks, I have found that we haven’t reached any status and I am always ready to keep trying to achieve a better status for my country.
QYou have established the Ayeyarwady Foundation, which donates to various philanthropic causes. But would it be fair to view such activities as equally beneficial to you and your businesses as a promotional vehicle? You mentioned CSR earlier.
A: The word CSR arrived in Burma not long ago. If you look at my donations, they began when I was young. When I was 12, I offered coats of whitewash over stupas in my town. I participated in all social occasions of joy or grief there. Likewise, Yegyi Township Association, a social organization for students from the same place, was founded only when I came to study at Rangoon University.
Then, I went to Japan to work. I worked there for about 20 hours a day. When I came back to Burma, I bought a fire truck and donated it. During that time, I didn’t know about CSR or know the word crony, which I and others have been labeled. I just did it because I was told by my teachers and parents that as a Burmese Buddhist, I should do such activities out of pure desire from my heart. If you ask me why I donate, I would say that helping needy people is a good thing and I will continue to assist them.
QYou have said that your assets will be donated when you die. Where will you donate them?
A: According to Lord Buddha’s teaching, your assets won’t follow you after your death but kamma [the result or consequences of what you have done] will. I make donations and [pursue] merit because I want to take the consequences along with me. I bestow well-wishes and goodwill on others. Mainly bearing in mind Buddha’s teachings, I have decided to donate as much as I can before I die.
QYou have supported opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and prominent democracy activist Min Ko Naing. Some people think you are trying to court Suu Kyi because you want your name to be removed from international sanctions lists. Any comment on that?
A: Why do we need to contend with each other, which will eventually lead to organizational schisms, in this fragile country? We have many things to do to re-establish it. Our country is still really poor and need is everywhere. Under such circumstances, if we go in opposite directions, we won’t reach a good destination. I want to tell everyone that I want to establish our country together with the state government, the opposition and the people. I only have this desire in mind.
QAs a successful businessman, do you have any plans to enter the political arena?
A: I currently don’t have any plans for that. I want to create job opportunities for our people. They can survive properly only if they individually have a good income. So, apart from me, many young businessmen should emerge in Burma. Youths should also be given jobs as foreign investment comes into the country.
But at the moment, many Burmese have to go to other countries to find work. That doesn’t matter if they are working in those countries as educated persons or scholars. Unfortunately, since we can’t provide, they have to go there for lowly jobs. Personally, I want to create jobs for them in this country so they can work here. I have enough for my life’s security and can survive well. What I am striving for now is to compete with other countries, since I always have a competitive mind.
QDo you believe in the legitimacy of the ongoing political reforms in Burma led by President Thein Sein? Do you think this democratic transition will be successful?
A: I only have positive thinking about it. Compare our country’s situation two years ago and now! People can’t just say their wishes. It takes time for something to happen. Real effort is also needed. All tasks carried out under the current reform process are very good. For me, I only hope for the positive.

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วันจันทร์ที่ 27 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2556

New Myanmar Part 4 : Japanese business in Myanmar is developing at an alarming rate

New Myanmar Part 4 : Japanese business 

in Myanmar is developing at an alarming rate

Japan will lend Burma US$504 million and will cancel $1.74 billion of Burmese debt as part of a series of weekend deals that included a pledge to push development of a proposed port and commercial zone at Thilawa, a half-hour drive from downtown Rangoon, Burma’s commercial capital.
Making the first visit by a Japanese prime minister since 1977, Shinzo Abe arrived on Friday and spent three days in Burma. He led a 40-strong business delegation that included heads of some of Japan’s biggest companies—another signal that Asia’s second-biggest economy wants a lead role in Burma’s fast-opening economy. Over the past year, Burma President Thein Sein and National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi visited Japan, while Abe’s Finance Minister Taro Aso was in Burma in January.

Key to Japan’s growing engagement with Burma is the proposed Thilawa Special Economic Zone, a 2,400-hectare site likely to include manufacturingJapan will lend Burma US$504 million and will cancel $1.74 billion of Burmese debt as part of a series of weekend deals that included a pledge to push development of a proposed port and commercial zone at Thilawa, a half-hour drive from downtown Rangoon, Burma’s commercial capital.
Making the first visit by a Japanese prime minister since 1977, Shinzo Abe arrived on Friday and spent three days in Burma. He led a 40-strong business delegation that included heads of some of Japan’s biggest companies—another signal that Asia’s second-biggest economy wants a lead role in Burma’s fast-opening economy. Over the past year, Burma President Thein Sein and National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi visited Japan, while Abe’s Finance Minister Taro Aso was in Burma in January.
Key to Japan’s growing engagement with Burma is the proposed Thilawa Special Economic Zone, a 2,400-hectare site likely to include manufacturing and textile operations, says Masaki Takahara, director of JETRO, Japan’s overseas trade mission in Rangoon.
“Construction should start in the fall this year at Thilawa,” Takahara told The Irrawaddy. “We hope that it will be operational by early 2015.”
Building industrial zones is central to attracting large-scale Japanese investment, said Takahara, who cited Burma’s on-again, off-again electricity supply as another deterrent to doing business. “For now, there is a lack of infrastructure in Myanmar. Power shortages make it difficult to establish large-scale manufacturing for now, but we are hoping these issues can be solved.”
During her recent trip to Japan, opposition leader Suu Kyi fretted that Japanese investment to Burma could stall unless Burma upgrades its antiquated road and telecommunications networks.
Japan’s new half-billion-dollar loan to Burma is aimed at addressing some of these infrastructure gaps, Takahara added.
As well as boosting aid and loans to Burma, Japan is writing off $1.74 billion in debt arrears owed to it by Burma—the weekend announcement coming just over a year after Tokyo said it would cancel the bill if Burma continued to reform.
“Since both governments acknowledged continuation of Myanmar’s reform efforts, the Government of Japan has decided to clear said overdue charges,” said a Japanese Foreign Ministry press release. In January, Japan and other creditors canceled or softened repayment terms for much of the total $15 billion debt that Burma owed to donor countries and institutions.
Prior to Abe’s visit, Japanese firms announced several deals in Burma in recent weeks, including one high-profile infrastructure deal—with Japan’s Sumitomo and NEC saying they would work on improving Burma’s telecommunications network.
And although large-scale Japanese manufacturing operations have yet to come to Burma, Japanese businesses see an untapped consumer goods market in Burma and want to establish a foothold ahead of Western competitors.
“More and more are thinking of entering the market in Myanmar and establishing a dominant position ahead of everyone else,” Takahara said.

Japan is moving fast to establish itself in Burma ahead of Western investors, now relatively free to set up shop in Burma after the US and EU governments removed most of the sanctions that had curtailed investment in recent years.
Yuki Akimoto, director of BurmaInfo Japan, told The Irrawaddy that the scale and breakneck pace of Japan’s re-engagement with Burma is an attempt “to make up for lost time,” after Japanese investment stalled in the latter years of military rule in Burma.
During that time, investment in Burma from other Asian economies, particularly China and Thailand, raced ahead of Japan, but now Tokyo sees an opportunity to boost foreign investment in a long-lost market and, perhaps, help jump-start Japan’s own sluggish economy.
Chinese investment has largely been in Burma’s natural resources sectors that, no matter how profitable, do not typically provide large-scale employment.
And overall, foreign investment into Burma jumped almost five-fold in 2012, compared with 2011, President Thein Sein said recently, with much of the increase said to be in the labor-intensive garment sector.
With high youth unemployment in an estimated 50-60 million population, Burmese politicians such as Suu Kyi have said that the country needs to attract investment that provides jobs, and Japan’s aid and investment could contribute to job generation, says a Rangoon-based business consultant, who asked that his name be withheld. “By developing light and light-heavy industries with Japanese assistance, Myanmar hopes to increase exports and jobs,” he told The Irrawaddy.
With Japan and China at odds over disputed islands in the East China Sea, Japan’s blossoming business-based relations with Burma mean that Tokyo can push back against Beijing, in the Southeast Asian nation that until recently was increasingly looking like a Chinese satellite state.

The United States seems to have similar unspoken ambitions in Burma, and the recent thaw in relations between the United States and Burma—with Thein Sein visiting Washington, D.C., last week—has given Japan the go-ahead to re-establish its own dormant ties with Burma, said Akimoto.
“During military rule, however, the Japanese government felt it had to suppress that desire because it was under pressure from the US government and it wanted, to a certain degree, to go along with the sanctions regime. Now it is like a dam broken.”
Akimoto warned, however, that “local communities in Burma still lack concrete legal tools to prevent or mitigate negative impacts by development projects,” something she says Japanese investors should be mindful of.
Japan’s drive to invest in Burma is being watched closely in neighboring Thailand, where Japanese auto manufacturers are a mainstay of an economy that also relies on Burma’s gas for power generation, as well as depends on 2-3 million low-wage Burmese migrant workers. The Thilawa SEZ is one of three large-scale industrial zones planned for Burma in the coming years, with the others slated for Maday Island and Kyaukphyu in Arakan State—the starting point for oil and gas pipelines that will cut across Burma into China’s Yunnan province, and in Dawei/Tavoy in Burma’s south.
The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok. and textile operations, says Masaki Takahara, director of JETRO, Japan’s overseas trade mission in Rangoon.
“Construction should start in the fall this year at Thilawa,” Takahara told The Irrawaddy. “We hope that it will be operational by early 2015.”

Building industrial zones is central to attracting large-scale Japanese investment, said Takahara, who cited Burma’s on-again, off-again electricity supply as another deterrent to doing business. “For now, there is a lack of infrastructure in Myanmar. Power shortages make it difficult to establish large-scale manufacturing for now, but we are hoping these issues can be solved.”
During her recent trip to Japan, opposition leader Suu Kyi fretted that Japanese investment to Burma could stall unless Burma upgrades its antiquated road and telecommunications networks.
Japan’s new half-billion-dollar loan to Burma is aimed at addressing some of these infrastructure gaps, Takahara added.
As well as boosting aid and loans to Burma, Japan is writing off $1.74 billion in debt arrears owed to it by Burma—the weekend announcement coming just over a year after Tokyo said it would cancel the bill if Burma continued to reform.
“Since both governments acknowledged continuation of Myanmar’s reform efforts, the Government of Japan has decided to clear said overdue charges,” said a Japanese Foreign Ministry press release. In January, Japan and other creditors canceled or softened repayment terms for much of the total $15 billion debt that Burma owed to donor countries and institutions.
Prior to Abe’s visit, Japanese firms announced several deals in Burma in recent weeks, including one high-profile infrastructure deal—with Japan’s Sumitomo and NEC saying they would work on improving Burma’s telecommunications network.
And although large-scale Japanese manufacturing operations have yet to come to Burma, Japanese businesses see an untapped consumer goods market in Burma and want to establish a foothold ahead of Western competitors.
“More and more are thinking of entering the market in Myanmar and establishing a dominant position ahead of everyone else,” Takahara said.
Japan is moving fast to establish itself in Burma ahead of Western investors, now relatively free to set up shop in Burma after the US and EU governments removed most of the sanctions that had curtailed investment in recent years.
Yuki Akimoto, director of BurmaInfo Japan, told The Irrawaddy that the scale and breakneck pace of Japan’s re-engagement with Burma is an attempt “to make up for lost time,” after Japanese investment stalled in the latter years of military rule in Burma.
During that time, investment in Burma from other Asian economies, particularly China and Thailand, raced ahead of Japan, but now Tokyo sees an opportunity to boost foreign investment in a long-lost market and, perhaps, help jump-start Japan’s own sluggish economy.
Chinese investment has largely been in Burma’s natural resources sectors that, no matter how profitable, do not typically provide large-scale employment.
And overall, foreign investment into Burma jumped almost five-fold in 2012, compared with 2011, President Thein Sein said recently, with much of the increase said to be in the labor-intensive garment sector.
With high youth unemployment in an estimated 50-60 million population, Burmese politicians such as Suu Kyi have said that the country needs to attract investment that provides jobs, and Japan’s aid and investment could contribute to job generation, says a Rangoon-based business consultant, who asked that his name be withheld. “By developing light and light-heavy industries with Japanese assistance, Myanmar hopes to increase exports and jobs,” he told The Irrawaddy.
With Japan and China at odds over disputed islands in the East China Sea, Japan’s blossoming business-based relations with Burma mean that Tokyo can push back against Beijing, in the Southeast Asian nation that until recently was increasingly looking like a Chinese satellite state.
The United States seems to have similar unspoken ambitions in Burma, and the recent thaw in relations between the United States and Burma—with Thein Sein visiting Washington, D.C., last week—has given Japan the go-ahead to re-establish its own dormant ties with Burma, said Akimoto.
“During military rule, however, the Japanese government felt it had to suppress that desire because it was under pressure from the US government and it wanted, to a certain degree, to go along with the sanctions regime. Now it is like a dam broken.”
Akimoto warned, however, that “local communities in Burma still lack concrete legal tools to prevent or mitigate negative impacts by development projects,” something she says Japanese investors should be mindful of.
Japan’s drive to invest in Burma is being watched closely in neighboring Thailand, where Japanese auto manufacturers are a mainstay of an economy that also relies on Burma’s gas for power generation, as well as depends on 2-3 million low-wage Burmese migrant workers. The Thilawa SEZ is one of three large-scale industrial zones planned for Burma in the coming years, with the others slated for Maday Island and Kyaukphyu in Arakan State—the starting point for oil and gas pipelines that will cut across Burma into China’s Yunnan province, and in Dawei/Tavoy in Burma’s south.

The Dawei project, if it goes ahead, will link a huge SEZ on Burma’s coast with Thailand’s capital Bangkok.

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วันศุกร์ที่ 24 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2556

Part 2 : New Myanmar ; Burma's currency has been in the real world

Part 2 : New Myanmar :

Burma's currency has been in the real world


Burma’s currency has plunged more than 7 percent over the past month to the lowest since it was floated last year, raising concern about economic stability in Asia’s newest democracy.
The drop coincides with a construction boom in Burma’s commercial capital, Rangoon, which is fuelling demand for dollars as builders import equipment and materials, part of a scramble by investors to tap one of the world’s last frontier markets after an easing of sanctions by Western countries.
Money changers such as Kyaw Naing say people are hoarding dollars, expecting further rises, in the first major bout of currency speculation since Burma emerged from military rule in March 2011 and introduced political and economic reforms.
“We are getting fewer customers now because people don’t want to sell their dollars, because they know the value will rise even higher,” Kyaw Naing said, holding a fistful of the kyat currency in his hole-in-the-wall stall in Rangoon.
The sliding kyat is welcome relief for rice farmers and other exporters but has prompted concern over the stability of Burma’s tiny, long-isolated economy, posing one of the biggest challenges yet for policy makers who introduced a managed float of the currency in April 2012.
“It’s quite clear that the plunging kyat has already had a strong impact on the import industry and it will affect consumers,” said a senior official from the Ministry of Commerce, noting Burma’s average April-May import bill of $30 million a day was about 17 percent higher than last year.
A disastrous “Burmese Way to Socialism” introduced after a 1962 coup followed by sweeping nationalization and decades of military mismanagement have left Burma heavily dependent on imports for basic needs, from edible oils to condensed milk and medicine, official data shows.
“The plunging kyat has had a strong negative impact on importers of all goods – medicines, electronic appliances, computers, edible oil, diesel, you name it,” said Soe Tun, a director of several businesses including Farmer, the country’s biggest car showroom.
Western academics and economists advising the government, however, say the currency has been overvalued and needs to fall to help farmers, the vast majority of whom have yet to benefit from the country’s reforms. Seventy percent of Burma’s 60 million people live on farms.
The International Monetary Fund said in a report in May last year that the kyat was overvalued by as much as 40 percent.
But bankers and importers caution against such a large swing in a fragile economy emerging from decades of misrule and isolation.
“Stability of the exchange rate is critical to confidence in the economy,” said Hal Bosher, chief executive of Yoma Bank, a private lender with branches across Burma.
“NO NEED TO INTERVENE”
Currency reform is a delicate task in Burma. In 1987, the sudden cancellation of certain banknote denominations by late dictator General Ne Win wiped out many people’s savings and helped trigger a pro-democracy uprising the following year that was crushed by the military, killing thousands.
For 35 years until last year, the kyat was pegged to the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights at 6.4 kyat per US dollar, a rate about 125 times stronger than the black-market rate of 800 to 820 kyat used for most transactions.
On April 2 last year, a new reference rate was set, initially 818 per dollar, as the first phase of a plan to create a market rate, simplifying foreign trade and investment.
The kyat gradually weakened, losing about 8 percent to 890 per dollar by May 8 this year. The next day, it dropped to 900 and kept falling, hitting 946 to the dollar on Thursday.
A senior central bank official said a stronger dollar and currency speculation were behind the weaker kyat, which she said the authorities were monitoring. “I don’t think we need to intervene at this point,” she said, asking for anonymity since she was not authorized to speak to media.
Authorities are working closely with the IMF which concluded an annual review of Burma’s economy on Wednesday.
“Volumes traded in the daily central bank auctions are increasing. The Central Bank of Burma is smoothing exchange rate fluctuations without targeting a specific rate,” IMF team leader Matt Davies said in a statement.
The central bank still falls under the Finance Ministry but a new central bank law expected in the middle of the year will give it operational autonomy.
Davies said foreign direct investment inflows should outweigh a widening current-account deficit, suggesting the dollar shortage could correct itself over time.
Bosher at Yoma Bank said the current central bank arrangement meant there was a risk monetary decision-making could be influenced by political concerns, a possible factor in the recent kyat trend.
He said the government was aware a weaker kyat would help farmers who would benefit from better prices for dollar-denominated rice exports. They make up a sizable portion of Burma’s 70 percent rural population. Exporters of other commodities such as teak would benefit too.
Kyi Myint, an economist and independent member of parliament, said the government’s withdrawal of foreign exchange certificates (FECs) may have also contributed to a sudden increase in demand for dollars. The FECs were first issued by the former junta in 1993 as a surrogate for US dollars.

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